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The Lancet study - John [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]

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The Lancet study [Oct. 11th, 2006|10:54 pm]
Yes, it's true.

Yes, it's rock solid.

No, you can't compare it to Iraq Body Count, that's comparing grapes to grapefruit. IBC counts only civilians, only killed by violence, and only those reported by the local media. This type of study has a damn good chance of catching *everything*.

Even if it's pretty badly wrong, it points to hundreds of thousands of deaths. About the only imaginable circumstances in which there weren't hundreds of thousands of Iraqis killed by this never-to-be-sufficiently-damned war, is if there was deliberate, flagrant falsification of data. It is possible - it wouldn't violate the laws of physics - but scientists get glory for reporting the truth, not for scoring points against Bush and the Republican Party. There'd be every bit as much glory in catching and fixing the 100,000 mistake from 2004 as there would be in re-establishing it, and showing that things have gotten even worse.

98% response rate; 80% of the deaths verified with death certificates. Yes, they extrapolated 629 deaths into 650,000, but they did so using sound methods that are accepted and agreed upon by statisticians everywhere.

And yes, that means that George W. Bush pushed this nation into a war,

1) when he knew the WMD data was weak,
2) when he knew that any Iraq-al Qaeda link was weak or nonexistent, and
3) without having any kind of a plan for fixing things after he broke them.

And now hundreds of thousands of people are dead.

And why? To make us safer?

How many people did we need to keep Saddam Hussein bottled up? Five thousand? Ten? Twenty?

We now need close to 150,000 just to keep back the threat, we have troops dying daily, and we're spending over a billion dollars a week there, just to keep things from getting any worse than they are, and if that's safety, I'm yearning for the dangerous days before the invasion, where we needed 1/7th the troops, barely any were dying, and where we weren't throwing good money after bad.

I talk a bit about the statistics at LongHairedWeirdo. Don't check For The Dream anymore; once this country legalized kidnapping and torture, I stopped dreaming, and now, after today, there's nothing but nightmares.